Catalyst Watch #33
This Week’s Most Actionable Microcap Press Releases in North America
CEMX.TO Q3 results coming on Wednesday. What to expect?
CEMX expects a record year. Exceeding the previous peak by just 1% under typical seasonality trends would imply ~$20.5M in Q3 revenues.
But let’s break it down.
CEMX initially guided for $40M+ in FY23 revenues, its previous peak, incl. ~$30M from large contracts. They ultimately reported ~$53.3M, but let’s assume ~$10M for the company’s seasonally strongest quarter, roughly flat yoy.
Then, add contributions from the major U.S. Midwest tunnel grouting project (June start) and the $22M North Carolina project (July start). Assuming a 12-month construction period and ratable revenue recognition, let’s add another ~$10M.
Anything above this level pushes revenues into record territory.
But YTD, the company announced $43.6M in contract awards vs. ~$35M over the past five comparable periods. If backlog-to-sales normalizes toward 1x, Q3 could land north of $25M.
Russell Stanley at Beacon, the only analyst covering the stock, expects $17.3M. Considering CEMX’s lumpiness, he may actually be closer to reality.
Read the report and test the assumptions in the link below.
