Catalyst Watch #4
32 Actionable Event-Driven Setups + 2 Quick Pitches
Scroll down to continue reading this week’s most actionable corporate events, along with quick pitches on previously flagged setups, available in HTML format. For all past setups and pitches, please refer to the PDF file at the end.
This Week’s Most Actionable Corporate Events
Ascent Industries Co. (ACNT) | Steel | $12.46 | $125.6mm
Asset Sale: Announced the successful closing of the previously disclosed sale of substantially all BRISMET assets to Ta Chen for ~$45mm in cash. Proceeds will be used to support both organic and inorganic growth initiatives within the Specialty Chemicals segment, where the company sees significant growth opportunities, as well as for general corporate purposes.
Banzai International, Inc. (BNZI) | Application Software | $1.03 | $9.6mm
Debt Reduction: Paid off ~$20.3mm of outstanding debt obligations ahead of schedule through the first quarter of 2025, as part of the ~$24.8mm debt payoff and restructuring agreements announced last September. These debt repayments, alongside its acquisition strategy and organic growth initiatives, will materially benefit net income and shareholders’ equity, positioning the company for substantial fundamental growth in 2025.
Capstone Holding Corp. (CAPS) | Building Materials | $2.38 | $12.4mm
Strategic Update: Announced active discussions with building products distribution companies in the Southeast U.S. as part of its strategy to accelerate growth through strategic M&A. Management has identified over 1,500 key acquisition candidates.
Conduit Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CDT) | Life Sciences Tools & Services | $0.91 | $6.1mm
Stock Buyback: Authorized a $1mm share repurchase program, citing a disconnect between its market price and underlying value. With multiple pipeline milestones expected this year, including preclinical readouts and the Phase II trial initiation for AZD1656, the company believes it is prudent to retain the option to repurchase shares using existing cash reserves.
Comtech Telecommunications Corp. (CMTL) | Communications Equipment | $1.35 | $39.6mm
Business Update: Completed initial deliveries of its next-generation VSAT systems to a strategically significant allied Navy partner in the APAC region. After months of rigorous testing and performance validation, the systems were selected for full-rate production, with deliveries set to continue over a two-year period.
ConnectM Technology Solutions, Inc. (CNTM) | Application Software | $0.71 | $15.0mm
Buyout Offer: Confirmed that the investor group behind the $1.60 per share buyout offer intends to proceed with the same price for shares issued after FY24. The revised share count implies a total equity value of ~$62.0mm, up from the original ~$46.5mm. Appointed ThinkEquity as a non-exclusive financial advisor and remains committed to a thorough, objective evaluation of the buyout offer and any other strategic alternatives.
3D Systems Corporation (DDD) | Health Care Services | $2.04 | $276.5mm
Asset Sale: Completed the sale of its Geomagic software portfolio to Hexagon for $123mm, with expected net proceeds of ~$100mm, aimed at strengthening the balance sheet and supporting future growth and profitability initiatives. As part of its strategic focus, the company will now concentrate on advancing its core additive manufacturing software platforms.
DarioHealth Corp. (DRIO) | Health Care Equipment | $0.73 | $30.2mm
New Partnership: Announced a second major employer partnership with one of the nation's most respected research and medical institutions to deploy its full suite of solutions, accelerating growth in 2025. The agreement is already live and generating recurring revenue, with the new partner playing a nationally strategic role in U.S. healthcare and technology initiatives.
Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. (ESP) | Electrical Parts & Equipment | $28.37 | $73.7mm
New Contract: Awarded an additional contract valued at $19.8mm, when fully funded, to supply electrical power transformers for the U.S. Navy’s Virginia and Columbia class submarines. The company was selected by General Dynamics Electric Boat and the U.S. Navy to manufacture components it previously designed and supplied for the Virginia class and the initial Columbia class vessels, which are a top DoD priority and will replace the Ohio class ballistic missile submarines.
Entravision Communications Corporation (EVC) | Advertising | $1.83 | $166.5mm
Executive Compensation: Announced changes to its executive compensation program for FY25, cutting base salaries by 47%, 38%, and 25% for its CEO, President, and CFO, respectively, while eliminating cash bonuses and shifting towards equity-based incentives. The shift is intended to better align executive rewards with company performance and long-term shareholder returns.
Flux Power Holdings, Inc. (FLUX) | Electrical Parts & Equipment | $1.49 | $24.9mm
Business Update: Announced six new major purchase orders from large North American airlines over the past year, reflecting the industry's accelerating shift toward electrified ground support operations. The new orders, totaling over $6mm, bring the company's total GSE order value to ~$20mm, with additional orders expected this year.
Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) | Oil & Gas E&P | $1.14 | $264.5mm
Offtake Agreement: Signed an offtake agreement with Future Energy Global for carbon abatement attributes, enabling airlines and other companies to reduce CO₂ emissions through SAF. With the aviation industry targeting net-zero emissions by 2050, and SAF expected to account for roughly two-thirds of that reduction, massive production scale-up is required, estimated at over 400x current levels. This agreement is expected to support the financing of its ATJ-60 facility, which aims to produce 60mm gallons of SAF annually at cost levels comparable to conventional jet fuel.
Fusion Fuel Green PLC (HTOO) | Electrical Parts & Equipment | $0.24 | $5.7mm
Letter of Intent: Signed a non-binding LOI to acquire a privately held UK-based fuel distribution business for £50mm. The target generated over $54mm in revenue and $7mm in net income in 2024. In addition to boosting scale and profitability, the deal would mark a strategic expansion into energy distribution and establish a foothold in a key international market. The move follows the late-2024 acquisition of Quality Industrial Corp. and aligns with its growth strategy to build a synergistic portfolio of profitable, cash-generative businesses across the energy value chain.
HUB Cyber Security Ltd. (HUBC) | Infrastructure Software | $2.94 | $20.9mm
New Contract: Selected by San Marino’s oldest financial institution to execute a comprehensive €20mm digital banking and infrastructure modernization initiative. Subject to regulatory approvals and the execution of a definitive agreement, the company expects to implement the project by the end of 2025.
Hydreight Technologies Inc. (HYDT.F) | Health Care Technology | $0.98 | $42.1mm
Strategic Partnership: Announced a partnership with renowned diabetes, obesity, and weight-loss expert Dr. Franklin Joseph to launch his internationally acclaimed “Dr. Frank’s Method” across the U.S. via Hydreight’s VSDHOne platform. The 50/50 profit-sharing collaboration aims to capture meaningful share in the rapidly expanding GLP-1 weight-loss and telehealth markets across North America.
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) | Restaurants | $9.55 | $284.4mm
Acquisition Proposal: Received an unsolicited proposal from Biglari Capital, owner of Steak ‘n Shake, to acquire its outstanding shares, entering into a confidentiality agreement. Biglari now holds ~15.1% of shares, crossing the 15% threshold set by a limited-duration poison pill first adopted in August 2023, when it began accumulating shares.
La Rosa Holdings Corp. (LRHC) | Real Estate Services | $0.19 | $4.3mm
Product Launch: Launched LR Agent Advance, a commission advancement program for its real estate agents, charging a 15% fee. This program creates a new revenue stream and enhances its ability to scale toward its $100mm revenue target and goal of achieving cash flow positivity by year-end.
Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG) | Movies & Entertainment | $6.27 | $1,149.9mm
Business Sale: Entered into an agreement to sell its Jack Wolfskin business to ANTA Sports for $290mm in cash, with the sale expected to close in late Q2 or early Q3 of 2025. This sale will enable the company to better focus on and optimize resources for its core business, while strengthening its balance sheet and liquidity ahead of the planned separation of Topgolf from its core operations.
Magnachip Semiconductor Corporation (MX) | Semiconductors | $2.80 | $103.3mm
Business Discontinuation: Announced that, following a thorough review, its board unanimously approved a plan to shut down the Display business by the end of 2Q25, after months of unsuccessful strategic discussions with multiple interested parties. Now operating as a pure-play Power discrete and Power IC company, it targets achieving quarterly adj. EBITDA breakeven from continuing operations by year-end. The company continues to evaluate opportunities to monetize its Display assets and expects a 30%-35% reduction in annualized operating expenses vs. 2024, alongside MSD-to-HSD revenue growth in 2025.
Nano Dimension Ltd. (NNDM) | Computer Hardware | $1.49 | $326.7mm
Management Change: Appointed Ofir Baharav, who has a proven track record in turnarounds and deep industry expertise, as CEO, following his appointment as Chairman last December. Earlier this month, the company completed its ~$180mm acquisition of Desktop Metal, while the $115mm merger with Markforged remains pending. The new management team will oversee both integrations, aiming to swiftly realize merger synergies, restore profitability, and unlock substantial shareholder value.
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc (OPXS) | Aerospace & Defense | $5.53 | $38.0mm
New Contract: Awarded a new $5.7mm contract for laser filter units tied to the XM157 Next Generation Fire Control Scope program, with deliveries scheduled from August 2025 through December 2026. The new order brings the company’s total backlog to over $46mm.
PCS Edventures!, Inc. (PCSV) | Education Services | $0.16 | $19.1mm
Stock Buyback: Authorized a share repurchase program of up to 10mm shares over the next three years, representing ~8.2% of shares outstanding. Management believes the stock trades at an attractive price and intends to deploy capital where it sees the greatest long-term value for shareholders.
Perfect Moment Ltd. (PMNT) | Apparel Manufacturing | $1.08 | $18.0mm
Business Update: Reported record brand coverage in FY25, surpassing 16bn digital media impressions and elevating global awareness to levels rivaling peers like Moncler and Canada Goose. Wholesale preorders for its upcoming Autumn/Winter 2025 collection already exceed last year’s by 30%, marking the largest wholesale book in the company’s history, excluding collaborations.
Perma-Pipe International Holdings, Inc. (PPIH) | Building Products & Equipment | $10.75 | $85.8mm
Project Awards: Awarded several projects across the Americas and MENA region with an aggregate value exceeding $27mm. The steady stream of new awards and an expanding backlog reflect growing demand for its solutions, driven by market growth in data centers, rising investments in pharmaceuticals and industrial sectors, and the expansion of midstream energy projects. These major project awards further complement an already strong backlog position for the coming year.
PRA Group, Inc. (PRAA) | Consumer Finance | $16.72 | $660.6mm
Management Change: Appointed Martin Sjolund as President and CEO, effective mid-June, succeeding Vikram Atal, who will remain with the company as senior advisor through the end of 2025. He brings extensive industry knowledge, thoughtful leadership, and a proven track record from his tenure as President of PRA Group Europe. The company is currently experiencing record global portfolio purchases and double-digit cash growth.
Retractable Technologies, Inc. (RVP) | Health Care Supplies | $0.68 | $20.4mm
Workforce Reduction: Reduced its workforce by ~7%, expecting to save around $1.6mm in annual wages and benefits, or ~7.8% of total estimated workforce costs. This move is part of the company's broader reshoring efforts, aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese-made products and minimizing tariff exposure. Moving forward, the company will import only those items it cannot produce domestically, with the majority of its production now focused at its Little Elm facility.
Satellogic Inc. (SATL) | Aerospace & Defense | $3.75 | $364.0mm
Contract Award: Awarded a multi-year, $30mm contract to deliver near-daily, ultra-low latency on-orbit analytics from its AI-first constellation to a strategic defense and security customer. This award demonstrates its ability to provide frequent, near real-time global defense monitoring tailored to the evolving mission needs of enterprise and national security clients.
Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI) | Broadcasting | $13.68 | $909.3mm
Insider Buying: The executive chairman purchased an additional $2.5mm, bringing his total purchases since early March to more than $13mm at a VWAP of $14.57. Two days later, the company announced its strategic entry into the rapidly growing media-for-equity space, with the U.S. poised to become the leading market for media capital by 2030, surpassing Sweden, Germany, and the UK.
SWK Holdings Corporation (SWKH) | Specialized Finance | $18.04 | $221.0mm
Royalty Sale: Closed the previously announced royalty sale to SCOF SPV I, an affiliate of Soleus Capital Management, for total cash proceeds of ~$34mm. Declared a special cash dividend of $4.00 per share, payable to shareholders of record as of April 24, with distribution set for two weeks later. Its ~$220mm performing life science loan portfolio continues to generate attractive cash yields, with management remaining bullish and reaffirming its positive outlook.
Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) | Real Estate Operating Companies | $15.93 | $428.0mm
Proxy Fight: Special Opportunities Fund, one of the company’s largest shareholders, announced it is soliciting proxies to elect three independent directors at the upcoming annual meeting in mid-May. The fund argues that the stock price fails to reflect the underlying asset value and criticizes the incumbent directors for being overly complacent in addressing the disconnect.
Interactive Strength Inc. (TRNR) | Leisure Products | $1.01 | $8.0mm
Transaction Agreement: Signed a binding transaction agreement to acquire Wattbike, expanding its fitness equipment portfolio to accelerate market share growth across the top three global fitness markets and push further into Asia. The deal, expected to close as early as Q2, will be the third acquisition in a year and a half and is anticipated to be immediately accretive, creating significant operating synergies. Raised 2025 pro forma revenue by 30% to more than $65mm.
22nd Century Group, Inc. (XXII) | Tobacco | $0.89 | 2.1mm
New Agreements: Executed two new agreements with former customers to supply filtered cigar products, each priced appropriately to ensure strong gross margins and consistent volumes. These agreements build on the momentum started in 3Q24, when the company signed a deal with a new filtered cigar customer. With its core CMO business expanding through partnerships with legacy filtered cigar customers, the company is ramping up production, with initial shipments expected in 2Q25 and annual volumes anticipated to reach 500k cartons or more.
Quick Pitches on Previously Flagged Setups
Alico, Inc. (ALCO) | Agricultural Products & Services | $28.81 | $220.0mm
Stock Buyback: ALCO is an agribusiness and land management company with a 125-year history and ~54k acres of land across Florida. Traditionally focused on citrus cultivation, known for the stability of conventional agriculture investments, the company has been a consistent dividend payer since 1974, returning ~$200mm of capital since FY15 and repaying ~$100mm in debt since FY16. However, citrus harvest volumes have steadily declined, with production roughly halving over the past decade due to the spread of the Asian citrus greening bacterial disease, first detected in 2005, which reduces crop yield and eventually kills the tree. This has been compounded by increasingly severe weather events, including hurricanes Irma (2017), Ian (2022), and Milton, which struck just a few months ago. In response, ALCO announced a strategic transformation earlier this year, planning to wind down citrus operations after the 2024/2025 harvest season. The new strategy seeks to unlock the full value of its land through alternative avenues such as residential and commercial real estate development, having already identified ~25% of its holdings for strategic development. By shifting to a diversified land model and pursuing non-citrus agricultural ventures, the value of ALCO’s land, which is currently estimated at $650mm to $750mm, at least twice its enterprise value, stands to appreciate meaningfully. With enough liquidity to fund operations through FY27, a newly authorized $50mm buyback program, and meaningful optionality from active land management, ALCO may be worth a closer look as a compelling asset play.
Quest Resource Holding Corporation (QRHC) | Waste Management | $2.65 | $54.6mm
Asset Sale: QRHC is an asset-light national provider of waste and recycling solutions for Fortune 1000 enterprises with complex, highly regulated waste streams. Over the past decade, it has expanded its footprint to cover every U.S. zip code, developed expertise across 100+ waste streams, and diversified into new end markets through six acquisitions. Today, the company is seeing more client activity than at any point in its history, noting “a noticeable uptick in not only the number but also the size of opportunities in [its] pipeline.” A key catalyst behind this momentum is new CEO Perry Moss, co-founder of Rubicon, a ~$700mm competitor reportedly facing customer attrition. Additionally, margins have significantly expanded by offboarding unprofitable clients as part of a business transformation initiative that began in 2016. Longer term, QRHC stands to benefit from secular tailwinds in sustainability and landfill diversion. As unit economics improve with scale and cost savings are passed on to customers, a true flywheel effect is reinforced. However, despite actively onboarding several new business wins, expanding existing client accounts, and building a robust prospects pipeline, the stock has derated to unprecedented levels due to one-off disruptions, including lower waste volumes from major industrial customers facing cyclical pressures and “uncharacteristic” attrition tied to non-core mall and shopping center accounts that were divested last week. If the current pace of client activity continues even partially, the company could multibag in short order.
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